It's close now to Christmas of 2015 and we find ourselves in one of the most slippery and tricky socioeconomic and geopolitical settings to have ever been seen. Here in the United States we see all the earmarks of economic calamity abundantly and emperically observable. We see monetary bubbles of every variety on the brink of popping. Un/under employment numbers have been massaged to something around 5% when the reality is something closer to 20-25%. Not only GDP (gross domestic production) but total national GDP is slumping in negative figures. Foreign relations are precarious at best as the U.S. actively engages in an asymmetrical, new cold war with Russia. OPEC oil producing countries are pumping a massive overabundance of crude into the west and over saturating a market that has seen a virtual standstill in the industrial manufacturing sector ($1.75/gallon - 35$/barrel oil looks good but is truly indicative of quite the contrary). The International monetary fund has now included the Chinese Yuan in its reserve currency basket and will subsequently lead to innumerable U.S. treasury bonds bouncing back to the states to further exemplify the icing on the cake effect of our economic depression. Couple all this with the fact that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (IE: our big dollar printing press) has just announced a .25% hike in interest rates for 2016 with the promise of 4 more hikes before 2017. So what exactly does this mean for us cyclists?
A lone cyclist rides amidst a sea of motorists; a soon to be less familiar image. |
The ultra high end bicycle market
Over the course of the post 2008 to-big-to-fail banking fiasco we saw a slow, incremental rise in the interest of uber high end bicycles. Bespoke and high end bicycles product saw some serious peaking as the Fed implemented Quantitative easing (ie: "economic stimulus" via monthly heroine like monetary injections into wall street) as we seem bound for the continuation of exponential bicycle market growth. The hand built bicycle industry made monumental leaps and gained locomotive-like inertia here in the United States as well as other high-median household income countries. The ability to acquire such a bicycle was not to far from reality for even those who did not rake in a six figure annual income like some. Loans became more cheap and easy, housing more affordable, jobs in theory stable with sentiment in the dollar looking beautiful as ever. Faulty a barometer though it may be, the stock markets rose to all time highs last year as we were sold the illusion that things are not only fine but getting substantially better. Consumer confidence seemingly rose in direct proportion and gave rise to a wave of "disposable income" spending which in turn meant serious growth for the up scale bicycle industry with its renewed interest over the recent years. The problem is that all of this was and still is predicated on a hollow/worthless U.S. dollar (a fundamentally broken monetary system), endless money printing, loan handouts to anyone breathing. There is not much more than stilts left propping up our hyper fragile world economy as it is only a matter of time before things begin to break down in terms of our standards of living and ideas of wholesomeness.
Here we have some well composed imagery curtosy of the fashion/lifestyle giant Rapha; someone other than you and getting what appears to be their $6,000 ride on. |
Fast forward to December 2015 as we stand at the tip of the iceberg in terms of our plateau. Some big changes in consumer tendencies are something that all bicycle manufacturers will be faced with in the coming years. As individuals and families alike make the shift in standards of living to ride out the wake of the economic tide, the bicycle industry will in turn be forced to make adjustments accordingly. The marketing of do-it-all bicycles will be ever pressed to retain sales for those who no longer have the financial means to facilitate a 5+ stable of mid-high end bicycles. More low end economic adaptations of preexisting designs will become more a thing of the future. The push of the "hybrid" bicycle will become once again prevalent but of course packaged with a nice new box and image to sell to us as we saw with the all road/adventure/cyclocross/gravel bicycle (more or less synonymous terms at this point) trend of 2014-2015. Sure, there will be a market for the ultra niche and uber expensive custom bicycle and products in the future, but it will be particularly the companies and builders who make efforts to adapt to changing times and bring to the table more high quality, versatile, entry to mid range offerings that I believe will thrive in economic hardship. Said companies and builders who can realistically cater more to the lower and middle class will stay afloat while ultra bougie companies will slowly price themselves out of the market in a stagnant, insolvent and debt ridden economy. Look for manufactures to push more commuter oriented bicycle designs being that bicycle commuting is about to take a hike in popularity, be it voluntary or not.
Commuters ride en mass somewhere in China. Transportation oriented riding greatly outweighs recreational cycling for sport in most Asian countries. |
What's old can be new again
So here you are, stacked up with more than enough bicycles to ride out the next few lifetimes worth of cycling adventure. The real question at this point seems to be weather or not it is A: economically plausible to continue updating the bicycle stable in a similarly mentioned fashion, or B: worth doing in the first place even if funds permitted. Evident as a reoccurring theme in past blog posts, an emphasis on rebuilding and repurposing preexisting bicycle frames and componentry is certainly part of my rhetoric here. In a time when every dollar begins to matter more and more, is it not logical to try to squeeze every last gram of value out of your hard earned, not so easy to come by income? Most of us avid bike lovers could quite literally afford to take that old steed out of the garage and make attempts to breathe new life into it. For the sake of our wallets, our unbelievably deteriorating planet (your and my home) and the integrity of our sanity in a bike world of year in/year out planned obsolescence; taking the foot off the gas in terms of expensive, lifestyle statement forward purchasing just might make the difference in a world of such overabundance and throwaway culture.
An exceptionally modest bicycle workshop in Theran, Iran. Its hard not to admire such resourcefulness exhibited in far less affluent settings. |