The bicycle is about to get a lot more important

It's close now to Christmas of 2015 and we find ourselves in one of the most slippery and tricky socioeconomic and geopolitical settings to have ever been seen.  Here in the United States we see all the earmarks of economic calamity abundantly and emperically observable.  We see monetary bubbles of every variety on the brink of popping.  Un/under employment numbers have been massaged to something around 5% when the reality is something closer to 20-25%.  Not only GDP (gross domestic production) but total national GDP is slumping in negative figures.  Foreign relations are precarious at best as the U.S. actively engages in an asymmetrical, new cold war with Russia.  OPEC oil producing countries are pumping a massive overabundance of crude into the west and over saturating a market that has seen a virtual standstill in the industrial  manufacturing sector ($1.75/gallon - 35$/barrel oil looks good but is truly indicative of quite the contrary).  The International monetary fund has now included the Chinese Yuan in its reserve currency basket and will subsequently lead to innumerable U.S. treasury bonds bouncing back to the states to further exemplify the icing on the cake effect of our economic depression.  Couple all this with the fact that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (IE: our big dollar printing press) has just announced a .25% hike in interest rates for 2016 with the promise of 4 more hikes before 2017.  So what exactly does this mean for us cyclists?

A lone cyclist rides amidst a sea of motorists;
a soon to be less familiar image.

 

The ultra high end bicycle market

Over the course of the post 2008 to-big-to-fail banking fiasco we saw a slow, incremental rise in the interest of uber high end bicycles.  Bespoke and high end bicycles product saw some serious peaking as the Fed implemented Quantitative easing (ie: "economic stimulus" via monthly heroine like monetary injections into wall street) as we seem bound for the continuation of exponential bicycle market growth.  The hand built bicycle industry made monumental leaps and gained locomotive-like inertia here in the United States as well as other high-median household income countries.  The ability to acquire such a bicycle was not to far from reality for even those who did not rake in a six figure annual income like some.  Loans became more cheap and easy, housing  more affordable, jobs in theory stable with sentiment in the dollar looking beautiful as ever.  Faulty a barometer though it may be, the stock markets rose to all time highs last year as we were sold the illusion that things are not only fine but getting substantially better.  Consumer confidence seemingly rose in direct proportion and gave rise to a wave of "disposable income" spending which in turn meant serious growth for the up scale bicycle industry with its renewed interest over the recent years.  The problem is that all of this was and still is predicated on a hollow/worthless  U.S. dollar (a fundamentally broken monetary system), endless money printing, loan handouts to anyone breathing.   There is not much more than stilts left propping up our hyper fragile world economy as it is only a matter of time before things begin to break down in terms of our standards of living and ideas of wholesomeness.



Here we have some well composed imagery curtosy
 of the fashion/lifestyle giant Rapha; someone other
 than you and getting what appears to be
their $6,000 ride on.

Fast forward to December 2015 as we stand at the tip of the iceberg in terms of our plateau.  Some big changes in consumer tendencies are something that all bicycle manufacturers will be faced with in the coming years.  As individuals and families alike make the shift in standards of living to ride out the wake of the economic tide, the bicycle industry will in turn be forced to make adjustments accordingly.  The marketing of do-it-all bicycles will be ever pressed to retain sales for those who no longer have the financial means to facilitate a 5+ stable of mid-high end bicycles.  More low end economic adaptations of preexisting designs will become more a thing of the future.  The push of the "hybrid" bicycle will become once again prevalent but of course packaged with a nice new box and image to sell to us as we saw with the all road/adventure/cyclocross/gravel bicycle (more or less synonymous terms at this point) trend of 2014-2015.  Sure, there will be a market for the ultra niche and uber expensive custom bicycle and products in the future, but it will be particularly the companies and builders who make efforts to adapt to changing times and bring to the table more high quality, versatile, entry to mid range offerings that I believe will thrive in economic hardship.  Said companies and builders who can realistically cater more to the lower and middle class will stay afloat while ultra bougie companies will slowly price themselves out of the market in a stagnant, insolvent and debt ridden economy.  Look for manufactures to push more commuter oriented bicycle designs being that bicycle commuting is about to take a hike in popularity, be it voluntary or not.




Commuters ride en mass somewhere in China.
Transportation oriented riding greatly outweighs
 recreational cycling for sport in most Asian
countries.

 

What's old can be new again

So here you are, stacked up with more than enough bicycles to ride out the next few lifetimes worth of cycling adventure.  The real question at this point seems to be weather or not it is A: economically plausible to continue updating the bicycle stable in a similarly mentioned fashion, or B: worth doing in the first place even if funds permitted.  Evident as a reoccurring theme in past blog posts, an emphasis on rebuilding and repurposing preexisting bicycle frames and componentry is certainly part of my rhetoric here. In a time when every dollar begins to matter more and more, is it not logical to try to squeeze every last gram of value out of your hard earned, not so easy to come by income?  Most of us avid bike lovers could quite literally afford to take that old steed out of the garage and make attempts to breathe new life into it.  For the sake of our wallets, our unbelievably deteriorating planet (your and my home) and the integrity of our sanity in a bike world of year in/year out planned obsolescence; taking the foot off the gas in terms of expensive, lifestyle statement forward purchasing just might make the difference in a world of such overabundance and throwaway culture.



An exceptionally modest bicycle workshop
in Theran, Iran.   Its hard not to admire such
resourcefulness exhibited in far less affluent settings.

Riding just to ride

You're all set, firmly mounted to your trusty steed and ready for the roads ahead.  Air pressure: check, saddle height: check, tools/snacks/water: check.  You're looking around now, its mid day and your alone with no agenda ahead of you other than to just ride somewhere.  No one thing dictates how, where or why you will go as you will.  You know its time now yet you hesitate.  Its just you and the path ahead, wherever that may be.  But where?

Aimlessly you ride with no end in sight; no particular destination or time to beat.  Strava off, power meter off and phone on silent.  Its strange; you cant seem to remember the last time this happened.  Really?  A ride for the sake of a ride?  Its been to long but that's ok because you're here now.

Inclination gravitates toward a steady pace as you begin riding along at a decent clip.  You're feeling a good tempo and it begins to take over.  Similar sights surround you as you pass familiar places while something catches your eye.  Its a new road, or at least to you it is.  As youto  decide make that turn into the unknown you are presented with a gentle grade that soon tapers into a daunting climb. You can only know what to expect so far as the eye can see; but its a windy one and your not so sure what you got yourself into here.  You're deep into this monument and somethings telling you to continue on.  Its beautiful, the scenery that loomed under your nose as you passed by many a time without every taking the care to experience this new adventure.  The road climbs and its steeped with texture; new smells and sights flooding your senses.  The not so manacured quality of the gravel, the fluctuating nature of the climb, the over abundance of plantmatter: all these things going through your head as you move along.

The pedals continue to turn and you move along enjoying the view as it passes you by.  You're asking yourself what your doing.  No intervals or technical training here, just a beautiful ride; that's right. 

At this point something interesting begins to happen.  Instead of upping the pace you slow down and spin a higher cadence.  What's the hurry after all, you can take this as quickly or slowly as you want; no negative repercussion awaits you. 

So here you are now just pedaling along simply because you can, because it feels good.  You're heart rate has climbed in direct proportion to the grade of the path and your legs have come alive at this point as the lactate acid begin to do its thing.  You're entire body is at work now helping guide you up this trek.  Its gratifying yet paradoxical; working hard to go nowhere in particular, for no particular reason other than to just do it.  What's the end gain here?  Its not like your walking away with anything.  Or are you? 
 

You're pace begins to slow now and you can see that its almost over as quickly as it began.  Did you see it?  That pocket of wild mushrooms on the side of that tree halfway up the climb?  Did you feel it?  What you must have sworn was the coolest summer breeze to have ever graced your sweating body.  Did you smell it?  They were a varietal of wild flowers that only express their nature at such elevation.  It was the essence of your existence all at your fingertips.  It was yours for the taking and the beauty is that it didn't have to end with the bike ride.  It only seemed to have started here as you began to focus your efforts inward simply for the sake itself.  You tried to unplug so as to come back to a place of receptivity; a place where you could be alive for things as they were immediately happening as opposed to conceptualizing the unknown variables that might dictate the rest of your week. You turned down that road because you didn't know what to expect or where it would go.  It was one of the most symbolic and brave things you've done in a long while. 

It was beautiful, your journey into pure uncertainty.  Life exemplified simply through journey via landscape steeped in color and dimension; flavor of all variety.   You danced like you never quite had before in a  spontaneous and graceful child like fashion.  Will you take another turn like that sometime? 

I'm curious, aren't you?



Is the "Adventure Bike" phenomenon a double edged sword?

For about 3 years now us cyclist consumers have seen a massive marketing shift toward a supposedly new breed of road(?) bicycle that has been branded under the title of gravel grinder, all road and adventure bicycle.  The identifying features of such bikes are taller bottom bracket heights, clearances for larger tires (typically up to 45mm), more lax geometries, more fork offset (rake) and the utilization of what some consider to be the more primitive of frame materials being aluminum, steel and sometimes titanium.  The reality of the matter seems to be that these new fill in the blank style do-it-all bicycles have more in common with our French/British cyclotouring and American mountain biking ancestry than any contemporary road bicycles and deserve close scrutiny as being legitimately new or groundbreaking for various reasons. When purchasing one of these new bikes we have to ask ourselves if we are truly the beneficiary of something that lends itself to rationalizing a purchase often well over the $2,000 "entry level" mark that quite possibly overlaps as a redundant purchase in our stable of bicycles.  Lets embellish the ups and downs, pros/cons and realities of these all to often differentiated sub genres of bicycles.

Exhibit A: Modern "adventure" bike.  You know this is a big deal when a company like Trek jumps on board.

 

Randonneur roots

Many of the quality bicycles of yesteryear would be of particular interest to the avid adventure oriented cyclist, particularly those of the late 1930's to the 1960's.  These bicycles were outstandingly diversified machines capable of being utilized on mixed terrain with comfort, speed, durability and load bearing in mind.  These bicycles were called cyclotouring or randonneur bicycles and filled a massive niche in the cycling industry during a time when longevity and versatility reigned supreme.  This lineage of primarily French, British, and Belgian heritage arguably helped pave the way for the modern mountain bike of today, but certainly acted as loose template for this "new" style of bicycle that is being investigated.  All the previously listed earmarks are here such as the wide clearances, more fork rake, tougher material selection and comfort oriented geometry and component selection.  Even the incorporation of bicycle specific methods of lighting are present.  So what gives?  Is this nu-adventure bicycle marketing just a gimmick to sell us yet another bike to serve yet another different job, or are we really looking at something special here that is really shaking the market up.  The answer is just as much yes as it is no.



Exhibit B: a well kept Rene Herse cyclotouring bicycle outfitted with all the usual goodies.

The future in the past

 

At this point we can clearly see that there is a cyclical trend occurring in the bicycle industry, and it seems indeed to be a healthy one that promotes the more spontaneous and uncalculated side of bicycle riding.  This new shift in design and marketing that is seeming to stitch up the split in the road vs mountain bike world has come at an important time for many who have fallen into the black and white scenario of picking either their "road" or "mountain" bicycle and going out for a ride accordingly.  Being able to mount your steed and take that turn from pavement onto that unknown gravel road or finally being able hold the confidence to ride that bit of windy single track all on the same ride has never been so close to being reality.  It's exactly this ability of such bicycles to dance around from one form of terrain to another that lends itself the new moniker of the "Adventure" or "All road" bike.  But we must acknowledge the fact that all of this has truly been done before though in a slightly different package, and that out there in the world is a multitude of forgotten bicycles that are more than capable of being sized up to the adventure oriented task of bicycle riding that your heart has been so desiring.  Coincidentally enough, that forgotten bicycle might be right under your nose in your own garage collecting dust behind the supposedly more noble steeds of today. 



Exhibit C: what would typically be considered a generic vintage mountain bike turned full tilt utility machine.

 

The touring and mountain bike

The 1970's through the 1990's was a breeding ground for what make some extremely fine candidates that are very much capable of filling the previously mentioned niche.  For just a song one can acquire a late 80's to mid 90's mountain bike frame for next to nothing and easily build it up to accommodate rides of all sort.  Virtually all frames of this vintage come standard with braze-ons for mounting rear, and sometimes front racks as well as having holes drilled for fenders.  By outfitting the bicycles with slightly smaller tires having tread to your liking (sub 1.95") and making handlebar changes or adjustments you can in no time set yourself up with a dynamic bicycle capable of handling most jobs throw it's way.  The same can be said for older touring bicycle frame sets.  Though not as wide they almost always have generous tire clearances and slightly more aggressive geometry for those looking for a more sporty, less off road oriented variant of "adventure" bike.  Compromise is inherently nature of the beast when it comes to jack of all trade bicycles like this and must be considered when buying or building up such a bike.  Should more robust but heavier steel tubing be used or perhaps lighter less impact resistant tube sets?  Should wider tires with slightly more knobby tread be used or a more narrow and slick tires; perhaps wide and semi slick?  Should I build a bike with 26" wheels for more strong, fatigue resistant and nimble ride characteristics or a 700c/29" wheeled setup for better rolling and stability characteristics?  Such questions can only be answered based on the desired applications and frequency of particular terrain encounters.  Will you see more paved and easy going gravel riding on your ventures or perhaps primarily rough trails mixed with lots of loose sections?  To attempt to perfectly bridge the gap is of course futile but indeed important in the quest to build or buy the most neatly tailored bicycle that suits your defined goals.